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Top Scorers vs ADP By: Dan Dankert

With Week 9 in the books I would like to turn everyone’s attention to something I said at the very beginning of the year- Value wins Championships. Right now I would like to take a look at the best players at each of the 3 most important positions and see what sort of value people are getting for their picks.

 

Highest Scoring Quarterbacks

Name Average pts per game Average Draft Position (ADP) Average Draft Position Ranking
Matt Ryan 22.4 114.2 21
Drew Brees 22.6 41.6 4
Andrew Luck 19.4 42.5 5
Aaron Rodgers 21.4 19.8 2
Derek Carr 18.1 105.1 17
Matthew Stafford 18.0 103.8 16
Marcus Mariota 17.8 120.0 23
Tyrod Taylor 17.3 123.7 24
Dak Prescott 18.6 83.4 10
Phillip Rivers 16.3 97.4 13

 

Quick note, this table, and all others, is in order of total scoring, so for example, Rodgers has a higher average than Luck but fewer total points, so Luck is 3rd and Rodgers is 4th.

Let’s take a look at some of the interesting data. 6 of the 10 were drafted on average as a backup quarterback falling out of the top 10 most drafted quarterbacks. This in my opinion is completely unexpected. In a league full of top notch quarterback talent, because of suspensions (Tom Brady), injuries and other factors we are seeing a lot of new names high up in this list. What is blowing my mind is how far down Ryan was on this list. My list of quarterbacks that I wanted to draft at the start of my draft went like this Luck, Ryan, Taylor, Carr, Prescott. Luck was more of a hope, I was looking to draft him the 6th and he didn’t drop that far, Ryan was also on my radar but I was hoping he would fall to the 13th, where I was going to take my QB1, after Luck was taken, Taylor then fell to the 13th but was taken the pick before me, I then picked Carr in the 13th and Prescott in the 14th.

Ryan for me was a player who I was torn over. The beginning of last year was a very promising sign for me that he had a lot left in the tank and could be a big time playmaker with Julio Jones continuing to play like a once in a generation talen, however, because of their collapse last year I didn’t know what to expect. I’m not surprised he is crushing the league, though I wouldn’t have given him the best odds to do so.

Only one player on this list is currently underperforming, Aaron Rodgers, drafted as the second quarterback in most leagues, he is currently the 4th highest scoring, or 3rd if you prefer to go by average points per game. It’s a slight underperformance by the most talented quarterback in the league, but an underperformance.

Ultimately, if you drafted any quarterback on this list, chances are you are doing pretty well in your league.

 

Highest Scoring Running Backs

Name Average pts per game Average Draft Position (ADP) Average Draft Position Ranking
Melvin Gordon 17.7 68.7 23
David Johnson 18.6 10.0 4
DeMarco Murray 16.4 52.2 19
Ezekiel Elliot 17.3 7.8 3
Matt Forte 13.1 42.9 16
LeSean McCoy 14.8* 25.0 10
LeGarrette Blount 14.0 106.8 36
Devonta Freeman 11.9 12.7 5
Frank Gore 11.8 76.8 26
Jay Ajayi 12.6 120 40

 

The biggest takeaway from this list are the two names not on it. Both Adrian Peterson and Todd Gurley were projected to be by far the best two running backs this year. With Peterson’s injury and the Ram’s offensive line playing uninspired at best, the door has been opened to a host of new running backs. There are two other interesting takeaways here.

3 of the top 4 running backs, are all young players. Gordon, Johnson and Elliot are all first or second year players. In a quarterback dominant league, these three players might signal a shift in the way the game is played. It will be interesting to watch the development of these players next year.

The second takeaway for me is that Murray, Forte, McCoy, and Forte are all having great seasons. All four are long time fantasy household names and all of them are having surprisingly strong seasons despite their age. With that in mind, former rushing title winners, Murray and McCoy, might end up even challenging once again for their former title.

 

Highest Scoring Wide Receivers

Name Average pts per game Average Draft Position (ADP) Average Draft Position Ranking
Julio Jones 13.6 5.5 3
Mike Evans 15.1 28.8 11
A.J. Green 13.0 10.6 5
Antonio Brown 12.5 1.4 1
T.Y. Hilton 11.1 44.0 18
Amari Cooper 10.6 31.2 13
Michael Crabtree 10.3 89.9 34
Odell Beckham Jr. 11.5 2.9 2
Terrelle Pryor Sr. 9.8 134.1 57
Jordy Nelson 10.9 20.8 8

 

Wow, I look at this list and immediately look at the 4th column. It tell us that there were only two players who weren’t picked to be starters based on where they were picked. As a comparison, there were 4 running backs above who weren’t drafted as starters and 6 quarterbacks who weren’t drafted as starters as well.

Here is an interesting scenario based on that statistic, if you take Terrelle Pryor off this list, because of how low his points per game number is, and replace him with Brandin Cooks, who is sitting 11th on the total points list, even though he is averaging over a point more than Pryor per game. He would have been another player drafted to be a starter meaning there would only be one player on this list not projected to start. It seems the fantasy experts across the country had their finger on the pulse of the wide receiver position.

A big surprise from this list is how high on this list Mike Evans has risen. I knew he was having a good season, I didn’t realize it was THIS good. He is currently the second highest scoring receiver in the league and if you prefer the points per game metric as I do, then he is the highest scoring wide receiver in the league. In a league with huge names like Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, OBJ, and even A.J. Green seeing Mike Evans at the top of this list is probably the most unexpected fact of the article.

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