By: Dan Dankert
Do you want to be the very best? Like no one ever was? Well you don’t have to travel across the land in order to become a master fantasy football player. It does take higher than average skill, and a lot of work. I do mock drafts like crazy each year before the fantasy football season starts. Most drafts won’t take place until August, but I am already starting to do mock drafts to get prepared.
Just recently I did a pair of mock drafts with a good friend of mine who honestly is much better at fantasy football than I am. We did a 10 team non-ppr draft where in the first draft he was the owner of the even teams, while I was the owner of the odd teams, the next day we switched and did it again. We only completed 6 rounds but that gave us a really good understanding of how those rounds played out.
Here is how things went down.
Mock Draft #1
Round 1 Round 2
1) David Johnson 20) Alshon Jeffery
2) Le’Veon Bell 19) Tom Brady
3) Ezekiel Elliot 18) Amari Cooper
4) Antonio Brown 17) Lamar Miller
5) Julio Jones 16) Todd Gurley
6) Odell Beckham Jr. 15) Michael Thomas
7) Mike Evans 14) DeMarco Murray
8) Jordy Nelson 13) Aaron Rodgers
9) LeSean McCoy 12) Jordan Howard
10) A.J. Green 11) Melvin Gordon
Round 3 Round 4
21) Leonard Fournette 40) Greg Olsen
22) Brandin Cooks 39) Demaryius Thomas
23) Dez Bryant 38) Mark Ingram
24) Rob Gronkowski 37) Keenan Allen
25) Carlos Hyde 36) Allen Robinson
26) Devonta Freeman 35) Delanie Walker
27) Jay Ajayi 34) DeAndre Hopkins
28) Jordan Reed 33) Christian McCaffrey
29) Marshawn Lynch 32) T.Y. Hilton
30) Travis Kelce 31) Sammy Watkins
Round 5 Round 6
41) Julian Edelman 60) Kirk Cousins
42) Golden Tate 59) Paul Perkins
43) Davante Adams 58) Derek Carr
44) Ty Montgomery 57) Jameis Winston
45) Eddie Lacy 56) Ben Roethlisberger
46) Tevin Coleman 55) Andrew Luck
47) Stefon Diggs 54) Bilal Powell
48) Doug Baldwin 53) Kelvin Benjamin
49) Jarvis Landry 52) Michael Crabtree
50) Drew Brees 51) Spencer Ware
Let’s take a closer look at each round and see what we can learn from the resulting picks.
Round 1:
RB: 4, WR: 6
There were a total of four running backs taken in the round, but the first three picks were all running backs. I think that alone is very telling. There are three top tier running backs in this draft: David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, and Ezekiel Elliot. The rest are just not nearly as good, though I think LeSean McCoy and DeMarco Murray are both very close to that top tier, at least in terms of talent; however, I think I am in a minority that feels that way. It appears to me that if you are at the top of round 1 you will be in a really good spot. I think the best pick in this round is LeSean McCoy at 9. He played immaculately last year and barring injury he will be fighting for top running back again next year. Finding that much value that low in the first round is awesome. The worst pick for me here is A.J. Green. I don’t think Green should be a first round choice because I think Cincinnati isn’t that great of a team.
Round 2:
QB: 2, RB: 5, WR: 3
In this round we saw our first quarterbacks off the board. Aaron Rodgers was paired up with his wide receiver Jordy Nelson which I have a feeling will be a common pick combo this upcoming year. It adds up extra value to both players. Tom Brady at the end of the second was probably too high but he again would be paired with Brandin Cooks which adds value. The best pick for me is Jordan Howard at 12. I think Howard has a lot of upside and can easily bring a ton of value to a fantasy team, the biggest problem that I have with him is that there is a very real chance of a sophomore slump incoming. That volatility makes him a terrible RB1 pickup but a beast RB2 and since I like picking a running back, back-to-back in the first two rounds it works really well for me here.
Round 3:
RB: 5, WR: 2, TE: 3
This was a very strange round and I am not as certain that it reflects what we will see in most mock drafts. Three tight ends going off the board this early makes me cringe but my close friend thinks it’s a good strategy to draft them this early. I will explain his rationale. The tight end position usually has one stud (Gronk) and then everyone else is just hit or miss. This year there is a little more competition near the top. Gronk is still the best but faces obvious injury issues, and Kelce, Reed, Olsen, and Walker all have the potential to have really strong seasons. So if you don’t get one of those 5 players you are in jeopardy of getting blown out in that position every week you play one of those top teams. It could be the difference between winning or losing against a top tier team. I’m not a huge fan of the strategy but I can see why someone would use it. I think the best pick up here was Leonard Fournette. I am a huge fan of Fournette, and though I don’t think he will score as high as Elliot did last year I think he is a better individual player. I think the Devonta Freeman pick was a tad high but that is because I do not value Devonta that highly as I doubt the Falcons can return to the offensive juggernaut that they were last year.
Round 4:
RB: 2, WR: 6, TE: 2
Two more tight ends are off the board with round four in the books. Christian McCaffrey here in the fourth round is interesting. It’s probably a bit high but a lot of people think he has the most fantasy upside from this past draft class. I don’t personally like him. But I see the appeal. I think the best pick here was T.Y. Hilton at 32. He is considered the 14th best overall player according to ESPN and though I don’t rate him that highly, he was an incredible value at 32. Mark Ingram was probably the worst pick as he faces too much competition for carries. Taking him this early is a big risk that he remains the feature back in New Orleans.
Round 5:
QB: 1, RB: 3, WR: 6,
There have been 23 wide receivers taken thus far compared to 19 running backs, 3 quarterbacks, and 5 tight ends. Most of the recent running backs were taken not because they are great value picks, but because people needed to find a second running back before they are all gone. There is so much more depth at wide receiver than there is a running back that I don’t think anyone can go wide receivers back to back in the first two rounds, or even take two wide receivers in the first three rounds. These wide receivers this round are actually all pretty good surprisingly considering how poor the running backs are that were picked this round. Edelman is great value, and so is Adams. That being said the best pick in this round is either Landry or Diggs. Both are very solid WR2s. The worst pick here in my opinion is Ty Montgomery. The Packers picked up THREE running backs in the draft. I don’t know about you, but I don’t think I pick three players if I think I have the guy I want to be leading my backfield next season.
Round 6
QB: 5, RB: 3, WR: 2
Not much to see here. QB’s started coming off the board a little bit more here. I think the best pick here was Spencer Ware and I don’t think there were any bad picks to point out.
Team 1 Team 2
David Johnson Le’Veon Bell
Alshon Jeffrey Tom Brady
Leonard Fournette Brandin Cooks
Greg Olsen Demaryius Thomas
Julian Edelman Golden Tate
Kirk Cousins Paul Perkins
Team 3 Team 4
Ezekiel Elliot Antonio Brown
Amari Cooper Lamar Miller
Dez Bryant Rob Gronkowski
Mark Ingram Keenan Allen
Davante Adams Ty Montgomery
Derek Carr Jameis Winston
Team 5 Team 6
Julio Jones Odell Beckham Jr.
Todd Gurley Michael Thomas
Carlos Hyde Devonta Freeman
Allen Robinson Delanie Walker
Eddie Lacy Tevin Coleman
Ben Roethlisberger Andrew Luck
Team 7 Team 8
Mike Evans Jordy Nelson
DeMarco Murray Aaron Rodgers
Jay Ajayi Jordan Reed
DeAndre Hopkins Christian McCaffrey
Stefon Diggs Doug Baldwin
Bilal Powell Kelvin Benjamin
Team 9 Team 10
LeSean McCoy A.J. Green
Jordon Howard Melvin Gordon
Marshawn Lynch Travis Kelce
T.Y. Hilton Sammy Watkins
Jarvis Landry Drew Brees
Michael Crabtree Spencer Ware
I’m not going to dig too deeply into these teams but I will talk a little bit about my favorite teams that were drafted. I think team 9 is the best team that was drafted. Great value out of McCoy and Howard really sets the team up for success. Getting Lynch to come in at the flex and hopefully produce 60 yards or at least a touchdown every week is reasonable out of the flex position and he has the opportunity to really pack on the points some weeks. Hilton and Landry are both solid options at the WR position and Crabtree is a nice addition to the mix as well.
The other team that I really like is team 7. Evans was a rough first round pick, but the rest of the draft was excellent. Murray is a fantastic RB1, Ajayi is a risky RB2 but he possesses a lot of upside. Hopkins and Diggs are both high upside WR’s and Powell adds some depth to the running back position in case things don’t work out with Ajayi. There is a lot of depth at the WR and RB positions which is crucial to get early on in the draft. Now let’s jump into the second mock draft that we did. There is still plenty of time to find a good value QB1 and TE1.
Mock Draft #2
Round 1 Round 2
1) Le’Veon Bell 20) Devonta Freeman
2) David Johnson 19) Michael Thomas
3) Ezekiel Elliot 18) Lamar Miller
4) Antonio Brown 17) Leonard Fournette
5) Julio Jones 16) Todd Gurley
6) Mike Evans 15) Tom Brady
7) Odell Beckham Jr. 14) A.J. Green
8) LeSean McCoy 13) DeMarco Murray
9) Melvin Gordon 12) Jordan Howard
10) Aaron Rodgers 11) Jordy Nelson
Round 3 Round 4
21) Dez Bryant 40) Delanie Walker
22) Carlos Hyde 39) Demaryius Thomas
23) Amari Cooper 38) Greg Olsen
24) Alshon Jeffrey 37) Allen Robinson
25) Rob Gronkowski 36) Keenan Allen
26) Brandin Cooks 35) Mark Ingram
27) Marshawn Lynch 34) Jay Ajayi
28) Jordan Reed 33) T.Y. Hilton
29) Sammy Watkins 32) Travis Kelce
30) DeAndre Hopkins 31) Christian McCaffrey
Round 5 Round 6
41) Golden Tate 60) Drew Brees
42) Davante Adams 59) Derek Carr
43) Kelvin Benjamin 58) Devante Parker
44) Tevin Coleman 57) Bilal Powell
45) Jarvis Landry 56) Jameis Winston
46) Eddie Lacy 55) Spencer Ware
47) Ty Montgomery 54) Andrew Luck
48) Julian Edelman 53) Stefon Diggs
49) Michael Crabtree 52) Tyreek Hill
50) Joe Mixon 51) Dalvin Cook
Round 1:
QB: 1, RB: 5, WR: 4
I think we really started to grasp just how important it is to grab a running back early and that’s why Gordon was taken in the first round of this draft. The addition of Aaron Rodgers was “a surprise to be sure, but a welcome one.”
Round 2:
QB: 1, RB: 6, WR: 3
It appears that our desperation for good running backs is only increasing. This time around there were 11 running backs selected in the first 20 picks, compared to 9 in the previous draft. The best pickup, BY FAR, was Murray at 13. That team is stacked from the get go. They have two RB1s on the same team. The worst pick was Freeman at 20 who I thought was too high in the third round after the last iteration.
Round 3:
RB: 2, WR: 6, TE: 2
This actually was a decent round compared to the tight end grab we saw last time. Gronk and Reed are both reasonable picks here. The best pick here was Watkins at 29. He will provide that team with a lot of firepower from the wide receiver position and since you have such amazing consistency at RB, you can take that type of risk with Watkins.
Round 4:
RB: 3, WR: 4, TE: 3
Here come the rest of the tight end picks. I think the McCaffrey pickup is interesting. They must be banking in McCaffrey being allowed to play WR in fantasy terms. If that’s the case it could position that team up well for success. McCaffrey has very high upside, but a terrible floor. Definitely a risky pick and I think it might have been the wrong one to make, it’s probably the worst in the round at face value just because how risky it is. The best is probably Jay Ajayi at 34. Once again there is an absolute value beast picked in the early 30’s. Ajayi is a great addition to that team and can be a very strong RB2 for that team.
Round 5
RB: 4, WR: 6
Lots of wide receivers off the board here and for good reason. There aren’t a ton of valuable running backs left. I think the Landry pick was the best pick up here and I think Mixon was the worst pick up here. Mixon has a ton of talent but it’s too early to grab him here when you could have waited rounds for him.
Round 6:
QB: 4, RB: 3, WR: 3
I really like the pickup of the quarterbacks here. They all seem to make a lot of sense. I think the best pickup in this round is Tyreek Hill. I think he is a great sleeper player and will be in charge of a lot of the Chiefs production this year. That being said I have little to no trust that midway through the year the Chiefs don’t throw in Mahomes if they don’t think they have a good shot at going deep into the playoffs. The worst pick here is Cook and for the same reason that Mixon was bad. He is a good player that can be snagged later for your bench.
Team 1 Team 2
Le’Veon Bell David Johnson
Devonta Freeman Michael Thomas
Dez Bryant Carlos Hyde
Delanie Walker Demaryius Thomas
Golden Tate Davante Adams
Drew Brees Derek Carr
Team 3 Team 4
Ezekiel Elliot Antonio Brown
Lamar Miller Leonard Fournette
Amari Cooper Alshon Jeffrey
Greg Olsen Allen Robinson
Kelvin Benjamin Tevin Coleman
Devante Parker Bilal Powell
Team 5 Team 6
Julio Jones Mike Evans
Tod Gurley Tom Brady
Rob Gronkowski Brandin Cooks
Keenan Allen Mark Ingram
Jarvis Landry Eddie Lacy
Jameis Winston Spencer Ware
Team 7 Team 8
Odell Beckham Jr. LeSean McCoy
A.J. Green DeMarco Murray
Marshawn Lynch Jordan Reed
Jay Ajayi T.Y. Hilton
Ty Montgomery J. Edelman
Andrew Luck Stefan Diggs
Team 9 Team 10
Melvin Gordon Aaron Rodgers
Jordan Howard Jordy Nelson
Sammy Watkins DeAndre Hopkins
Travis Kelce Christian McCaffrey
Michael Crabtree Joe Mixon
Tyreek Hill Dalvin Cook
I think there are two teams that really stand head and shoulders above the rest of the teams. The first being team 8 who, in my opinion, had an A+ draft. Getting McCoy and Murray was unbelievable. They then followed that up with a risky pick, Jordan Reed, only to follow it by eliminating that risk by getting T.Y. Hilton in the 4th, Julian Edelman in the 5th, and then Stefan Diggs in the 6th. Talk about filling that hole at wide receiver. As long as this team gets a decent value QB1 in the later rounds, like a Carson Wentz, they will probably win the league. I think it’s the most dominant team I have ever seen.
The other really fantastic team is Team 2. Getting Johnson is nice enough for any team, but then they grabbed Michael Thomas who has a tremendous upside. They then snagged Hyde in the 3rd and D. Thomas in the 4th to shore up their RB2 and WR2 holes. Then grabbing Adams who is still a player that could develop into a top tier wide receiver was a solid pickup and then getting Carr at QB was very fortunate.
Keep your eyes out for more fantasy football content coming soon!